Before the vote: Triumph proposals under review

15 proposals asking $318.2M are under review at Triumph Gulf Coast, as of 24 October 2026. The largest, Project Maeve, is set against the questions a pre-vote review should answer.

Under review

What is before the board

Proposal	County	Asked	Received	Furthest step posted
#367 · Maeve City of Pensacola Read the brief below	Escambia	$76.0M	27 Oct 2025	Term sheet signed
#373 · AUV Strydent Autonomous Technologies, Inc.	Bay	$60.0M	25 Mar 2026	Pre-application
#321 · EPIC - CTE Expansion Walton County School District	Walton	$43.3M	6 Aug 2023	Application
#378 · YouthWorks Expansion NorthWest Children's Home Society	Not stated	$25.2M	9 Jul 2026	Pre-application
#337 · Ship MRO Gulf Board of County Commissioners	Gulf	$23.5M	20 May 2024	Scored by staff
#383 · First Responder Communication System - Phase II Franklin County BCC	Franklin	$20.3M	14 Oct 2026	Pre-application
#382 · Phase 2 NWFL Beaches Adventure Within Reach Visit Florida	Not stated	$16.5M	21 Sep 2026	Pre-application
#381 · ACCEL University of West Florida	Escambia	$15.7M	16 Sep 2026	Pre-application
#375 · Gulf Maritime Academy Gulf School District	Gulf	$10.0M	23 May 2026	Application
#363 · Careers in Residential Construction Home Builders Institute	Not stated	$9.3M	8 Sep 2025	Pre-application
#369 · Bay AI Ignite Bay Haven Charter Academy, Inc.	Bay	$7.7M	21 Nov 2025	Application
#379 · Freedom Farms and Freedom Network Workforce Infra Freedom Life Compass, Inc	Walton	$5.0M	12 Jul 2026	Pre-application
#376 · Fire Safety Training Gulf Schools	Gulf	$4.6M	18 May 2026	Term sheet drafted
#384 · County Jail Emergency Backup Generator Franklin County BCC	Franklin	$665K	14 Oct 2026	Pre-application
#380 · Community Facility & Workforce Hub Save The Closet	Bay	$375K	30 Jul 2026	Pre-application

Brief · #367

Project Maeve: $76.0M for shipbuilding at the Port of Pensacola

The City of Pensacola asks Triumph for up to $76 million toward construction at the Port of Pensacola, for buildings the City would own and lease to a shipbuilder the record calls Project Maeve. A letter from the University of West Florida’s WAVE Center in the application refers to “Birdon and their Project Maeve proposal”; neither the City nor Triumph names the company in the documents read.

Triumph and the City signed a term sheet on 23 July 2026. It says it is not a grant or an approval of one. Several decisions are still to come:

the grant agreement, which the City and Triumph’s board must both approve;
the company’s performance agreement, which Triumph approves at its sole discretion, along with the choice of company;
a lease of at least 25 years, which the City Council approves and Triumph has 15 days to approve or reject (silence counts as approval);
the commitment of the matching funds, required before any money is paid.

The term sheet lapses twelve months after its date unless the board grants the City a six-month extension.

Asked of Triumph

$76.0M

Of a $275M project: $130M of construction, $145M of company equipment

Public share of construction

76%+

Triumph pays 58.46% of each construction invoice; City grants add $22.3M

Jobs promised

2,000

By 31 December 2035 at the latest, kept seven of the next ten years

Repaid per job short

$38,000

Owed by the company, capped at $76M plus interest and fees

Break-even “but for” share

6%–14%

Ten years of wages, as for every deal; 8%–20% on the seven guaranteed years. Research median 12.7%

Six questions the record leaves for the City Council and Triumph’s board

What is the rent, and does it cover exterior upkeep, insurance and a capital reserve for at least 25 years?
Will the grant agreement say plainly that repayment is owed if either job target is missed?
Which governs construction: the 1 May 2029 deadline, or the budget that runs into 2030?
Are the City's $22.3 million of matching grants secured, and how much of the company's $31.7 million may itself come from grants?
Which other locations did the company consider, and what would it do without the grant?
Will the company's lease be on the property-tax roll?

The public money · Who pays for what

On record The project costs $275 million: $130 million of construction and $145 million of the company's equipment. Triumph's $76 million goes only to construction, at no more than 58.46% of each construction invoice, so it is paid as the work is billed. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record The application splits the construction into $105 million for two buildings, about 400,000 square feet in all, and $25 million for site preparation and port utilities. Application, December 2025
On record The rest of the construction is $22.3 million of City match, labelled “EDA + JGGF + other grants”, and $31.7 million the company commits, labelled “Company Capital Investment (Possible Other Grants)”. No money is paid until $199 million of matching funds is committed irrevocably. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record The application describes the EDA (federal Economic Development Administration) and JGGF (state Job Growth Grant Fund) money as pending requests. Application, December 2025
Analysis Public grants would pay at least about 76% of the construction, which the City would own: Triumph's $76 million and the City's $22.3 million of $130 million. More, if the company's share also comes from grants.
On record The January score sheet described a different budget: $105 million of construction, a pending $14 million FloridaCommerce request, and a staff recommendation to cap Triumph at 72.4% of construction. The executed term sheet's budget differs. Score sheet, January 2026
Not on record The value of the City's port land, the rent the company will pay, and whether the company's lease will be on the property-tax roll.

Would it happen anyway? · The need question

On record The application says the public investment would create “the foundation necessary to secure Project Maeve’s expansion to Pensacola”. It includes a letter of support from the Navy's Maritime Industrial Base program, and says the program also awarded $300,000 for workforce analysis and facility design. Application, December 2025
Not on record Any estimate of whether the company would build here without the grant, or with less, and any other location it considered. The application and score sheet name none.
On record The job definition carries a test of its own: a job counts only if it “could not be sustained absent the availability of the Facility”. That ties the jobs to the buildings, though not to the grant. Executed term sheet, July 2026
Analysis On the direct-wage screen used for every Triumph deal, which counts ten years of wages, the grant breaks even if it decides 5.9% to 13.7% of deals like it. The range runs from the stated wage at 4%, with jobs from year one, to the wage floor at 7%, with a three-year build and a five-year ramp. Seven of the eight readings are at or below 12.7%, the research median across all studies, and all are above 3.4%, the median in studies with no obvious selection bias. The agreement guarantees the jobs for only seven of those ten years. Counting only those seven, the range is 7.9% to 19.9%, and four of the eight readings are at or below 12.7%. The screen also counts every wage dollar as a gain to the region; counting only half of each wage as a gain would double each figure.

Net benefit · What the return counts, and how jobs are counted

On record The score sheet states “$33.6 of additional household income for every Triumph dollar expended”, or $2.55 billion over the ten-year job maintenance period, and grades the project A. Score sheet, January 2026
Not on record The wage, multiplier and discounting behind that figure, the model that produced it, and whether it subtracts jobs that would have come anyway or moved from elsewhere in the region.
Analysis $2.55 billion is about 1.6 times what 2,000 jobs at $80,000 would earn over ten years, so it counts more than direct wages.
On record A counted job may be anywhere in the eight counties, not only at the shipyard. It includes “Company-appointed labor hire and subcontractors” whose hours are tracked. Jobs moved within Florida count only if backfilled, and temporary construction jobs do not count. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record Safeguards on the count: an economist Triumph selects does the count. The company must attest under penalty of perjury that no job is counted under another Triumph agreement. A job without the required payroll records cannot be counted. Executed term sheet, July 2026
Analysis The application projects an average wage above $80,000, which it calls about 140% of the county's $55,971. The term sheet requires each job to pay at least 115% of FloridaCommerce's 2025 Escambia figure; the performance agreement words it as an average. That is about $64,000 if the figure is $55,971, which has not been checked against FloridaCommerce's table.

Targets and repayment · What the agreements would bind

On record Construction complete by 1 May 2029. 2,000 net new jobs by the earlier of five years after completion or 31 December 2035, all kept for seven of the following ten years. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record Repayment is proportional: $38,000 for each job short, owed by the company, with interest at the Wall Street Journal prime rate plus 3% from the date Triumph demands it. The lease must also bind the company to pay it. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record The company's liability is capped at $76 million plus interest and attorneys' fees. Company performance agreement (unsigned form)
On record Triumph may waive, reduce, extend or defer repayment on four grounds: the breach was not material; quantitative evidence shows negative economic conditions beyond the parties' control; the parties made a good-faith effort; or quantitative evidence shows a named hurricane, tropical storm or act of terrorism got in the way. The City bears half of Triumph's reasonable legal costs of enforcing against the company. Executed term sheet, July 2026
On record The company's performance agreement also makes the company liable for Triumph's legal costs. It says it controls if the two documents conflict. Company performance agreement (unsigned form)
On record The City's own exposure: it repays everything received if it made a materially false certification or materially breached the agreement. It must return all or part of the grant if the project is ended or suspended. It and the company bear any cost above $275 million. Executed term sheet, July 2026
Analysis The term sheet's first trigger says repayment is owed “in the event both of the following performance metrics … are not achieved”. Read literally, that would excuse jobs created but not kept. Its next paragraph and examples (“1,999 jobs created or maintained”) and the company's performance agreement (“fails to timely achieve both”, which controls in a conflict) point to repayment for either shortfall. The same first-trigger wording appears in Triumph's agreements for #315 and #356. The grant agreement could remove the doubt.
Analysis The executed budget schedules $22.5 million of construction in 2030, after the 1 May 2029 completion deadline. The two do not fit; the grant agreement should reconcile them.

Land value and upkeep · Who keeps the asset, and who keeps it up

On record The City keeps the land and the buildings at the Port of Pensacola, a City enterprise. The application says lease fees “will be used in support of exterior maintenance”, and tenants are responsible for interior maintenance. Application, December 2025
On record The lease must run at least 25 years. Rent may be spent only on the buildings' operation, maintenance and repair, or on economic development that does not replace what the City already funds. The City must keep, or have the tenant keep, casualty insurance on what Triumph pays for, as far as it can be insured. Executed term sheet, July 2026
Not on record The rent, and any estimate of what exterior upkeep, insurance and a reserve for roofs and structure will cost about 400,000 square feet of buildings over 25 years. The application lists a flood elevation certificate among the permits but states no design elevation.
Analysis If rent falls short, the gap falls first on the Port's enterprise fund, and then on the City's general fund if the City backs it. If Amendment 3 takes effect, the state estimated $45.3 million less property tax in 2027–28 across all non-school levies in Escambia County: the county, its cities and its special districts together. If the company leaves, the City keeps specialised buildings that the score sheet says “can support future maritime industrial tenants if needed”.

The precedents the application names

The application calls two earlier City awards “previously successful” and says it will measure performance as it did on them. Neither has yet reached its job test.

#120 Comm. Aircraft Maintenance Campus: $66.0M for 1,325 jobs. The application uses this ST Engineering hangar award as a precedent. The City's deadline to sign its construction contracts, 30 June 2025, has passed, while Triumph's June 2026 tracker reports construction on track. An unposted amendment or report may account for the difference. Its jobs are measured after the hangar is occupied, so its job test has not come due.
#315 American Magic at Port of Pensacola: $8.5M for 170 jobs. Triumph's June 2026 tracker reports construction completed and the metrics on track. The repayment obligation falls on the City itself, and its trigger uses the same “both … are not achieved” wording. Its job test has not come due either.