Epomena

Loan and repayment

How much is borrowed, what the payments are, and whether the net revenue pledged to the loan covers them.

Real project10 published · 5 derived5 assumptions
Can it repay what it borrows?On paper; not settledIn the tightest year, the revenue pledged to the loan covers its payments 2.33× over (the test used here is 1.25×). Not settled yet: 5 inputs are assumptions. Coverage counts all of Gulf Breeze CRA tax increment; the agency's other spending from it is not netted out. 1 legal question (who may do this, or what the law allows) is still open. The pledged revenue may end by law after 2039, with 2 years of payments still due, unless it is continued; with nothing else pledged, coverage in those years would be 0×.

Project

Gulf Breeze Highway 98 utility undergrounding (CRA-financed)

Santa Rosa County

  • Construction cost, in 2022 dollars$7.2M
  • Route length1.93 mi
  • Years looked at20 years
Change assumptions
%
How much less a benefit years from now counts today (public-benefit view)
%
The owner's cost of money
%

Compare with

The loan

Loan balance modelled
$10.3M
Original loan: $10.7M, 20 years
Interest and term
2.1% / 19 yr
level payment
Tightest year: revenue ÷ payment
2.33×
Year 1; 0× from 2040 if the pledged revenue is not continued
Largest yearly payment
$662,947
Net revenue pledged, first payment year
$1,542,370
Lender's usual minimum
1.25×
About this number
What it measures
In the worst year of the loan, the money pledged to repay it divided by that year's payment. 2× means the pledged money is twice the payment.
Why it matters
Lenders and rating agencies use this ratio to judge whether a loan survives a bad year. The cushion above 1× is what absorbs a smaller tax base, a missed rate increase or a storm.
Source
Pledged revenue and loan terms as listed under Where the numbers come from on the Summary page; the lender test is our assumption unless a covenant is published.
Change the loan terms
$
%
yr
yr
yr
%
yr
×

Net revenue pledged vs. loan payments, each year

Loan payment and net revenue pledged by year$0$2.0M$4.0M2023: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.5M20232024: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.6M2025: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.7M20252026: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.7M2027: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.8M20272028: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $1.9M2029: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.0M20292030: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.0M2031: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.1M20312032: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.2M2033: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.3M20332034: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.4M2035: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.5M20352036: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.6M2037: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.7M20372038: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.8M2039: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $2.9M20392040: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $3.0M2041: loan payment $663K; net revenue pledged $3.1M20412042: loan payment $0; net revenue pledged $3.2MCoverage each year · lowest 2.33× (2023)2023: 2.33× coverage2024: 2.42× coverage2025: 2.52× coverage2026: 2.62× coverage2027: 2.72× coverage2028: 2.83× coverage2029: 2.94× coverage2030: 3.06× coverage2031: 3.18× coverage2032: 3.31× coverage2033: 3.44× coverage2034: 3.58× coverage2035: 3.72× coverage2036: 3.87× coverage2037: 4.03× coverage2038: 4.19× coverage2039: 4.36× coverage2040: 4.53× if the pledged revenue is continued; 0× if not2041: 4.71× if the pledged revenue is continued; 0× if not2042: no payment due0× in 2040–41 if not continuedMay end 2039then 0× if not continued
Loan paymentNet revenue pledged to the loanCoverage at or above 1.25×Years the pledged revenue may no longer existCovered only if it is continued; 0× if not

Years count from 2022, the model’s base year (Gulf Breeze's fiscal years end on 30 September).

As a business

Does it pay for itself without subsidy?

Net value before borrowing
−$6.8M
Compared with "Keep overhead (status quo)", in today's money
Net value after funding and loan
Not shown
Not shown: the loan is larger than this project and also paid for other work, so its proceeds would be wrongly counted here
Total interest
$2.3M

Public benefits are counted separately and are never used to repay a loan.

Year-by-year table
YearCapexO&MRenewalE[restoration]RevenueNet to ownerDebt servicePledged revenueCoverage
0 · 2022$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0n/a
1 · 2023$3,386,796$0$0$0$1,542,370−$3,386,796$662,947$1,542,3702.33×
2 · 2024$1,750,055$0$0$0$1,604,065−$1,750,055$662,947$1,604,0652.42×
3 · 2025$1,181,574$0$0$0$1,668,227−$1,181,574$662,947$1,668,2272.52×
4 · 2026$1,181,576$0$0$0$1,734,956−$1,181,576$662,947$1,734,9562.62×
5 · 2027$0$0$0$0$1,804,355$0$662,947$1,804,3552.72×
6 · 2028$0$0$0$0$1,876,529$0$662,947$1,876,5292.83×
7 · 2029$0$0$0$0$1,951,590$0$662,947$1,951,5902.94×
8 · 2030$0$0$0$0$2,029,654$0$662,947$2,029,6543.06×
9 · 2031$0$0$0$0$2,110,840$0$662,947$2,110,8403.18×
10 · 2032$0$0$0$0$2,195,273$0$662,947$2,195,2733.31×
11 · 2033$0$0$0$0$2,283,084$0$662,947$2,283,0843.44×
12 · 2034$0$0$0$0$2,374,408$0$662,947$2,374,4083.58×
13 · 2035$0$0$0$0$2,469,384$0$662,947$2,469,3843.72×
14 · 2036$0$0$0$0$2,568,159$0$662,947$2,568,1593.87×
15 · 2037$0$0$0$0$2,670,886$0$662,947$2,670,8864.03×
16 · 2038$0$0$0$0$2,777,721$0$662,947$2,777,7214.19×
17 · 2039$0$0$0$0$2,888,830$0$662,947$2,888,8304.36×
18 · 2040$0$0$0$0$3,004,383$0$662,947$3,004,3834.53×
19 · 2041$0$0$0$0$3,124,559$0$662,947$3,124,5594.71×
20 · 2042$0$0$0$0$3,249,541$0$0$3,249,541n/a

Looking back: was the borrowing sound?

It rests on revenue the record doesn't confirm

Repayment revenue is in published accounts; the pledge terms are notThe loan is already in place; this checks whether the published record supports it.
  • 5 inputs are assumptions.
  • Coverage counts all of Gulf Breeze CRA tax increment; the agency's other spending from it is not netted out.
  • 1 legal question (who may do this, or what the law allows) is still open.

Who is responsible

Owner
Gulf Breeze Community Redevelopment Agency
Security
Not published. The CRA's accounts show the loan paid from tax increment; the loan agreement is not posted.
Repayment source
Tax increment from Santa Rosa County and the City of Gulf Breeze
Issuer
Gulf Breeze CRA (borrower on the $10.7M bank loan)
Authority
Community Redevelopment Act, Fla. Stat. part III, ch. 163 (statute text not yet checked)

If things go worse

  • Interest rate 2 points higher, if the loan were refinanced
    the record implies a fixed 2.1%, so this applies only to a refinancing    1.95×
  • Pledged revenue stops growing (0% a year)
    lowest coverage in any year; same as the base case, whose tightest year comes first    2.33×
  • Other redevelopment spending takes 20% of the increment first
    lowest coverage in any year; an illustration, since the agency's other obligations are not modelled    1.86×
  • The pledged revenue ends after year 17 and is not renewed
    s. 163.3755(1), F.S.: a CRA that existed on 1 October 2019 ends by 30 September 2039 (the end of FY2039, model year 17) unless the city or county votes to continue it; no such vote was found.    0.00×
  • Only confirmed funding counts
    financing gap    $0
Try what-ifs