Santa Rosa County · undergrounding
Gulf Breeze Highway 98 utility undergrounding (CRA-financed)
Completed August 2026: about $7.5 million to remove 70 poles and 10,210 feet of overhead wire along US 98, paid from Gulf Breeze CRA tax increment and a $10.7 million 20-year bank loan shared with the Highway 98 multimodal overpass. No benefit-cost analysis was published.
Built · August 2026 Real project10 published · 5 derived5 assumptions Present at a meetingReport an error
The short answer
Can it repay what it borrows?On paper; not settledIn the tightest year, the revenue pledged to the loan covers its payments 2.33× over (the test used here is 1.25×). Not settled yet: 5 inputs are assumptions. Coverage counts all of Gulf Breeze CRA tax increment; the agency's other spending from it is not netted out. 1 legal question (who may do this, or what the law allows) is still open. The pledged revenue may end by law after 2039, with 2 years of payments still due, unless it is continued; with nothing else pledged, coverage in those years would be 0×.See how this was worked out →Is it fully paid for?Yes$7.5M of cost is matched by funding that is confirmed.See how this was worked out →Is it worth it to the public?UnknownNo one has published a dollar estimate of the public benefits (3 benefits are described but not measured).See how this was worked out →
How these answers are decided
- Can it repay?“Yes” only when, in the tightest year, the revenue pledged to the loan covers loan payments at least as many times over as the lender test, and every input behind it is published or worked out from published figures. If it passes on inputs that are still assumptions or open questions, the answer is “On paper; not settled”. Below the test it is “Only just”; below 1× it is “No”. A grant that only reimburses spending is flagged because someone must pay contractors first.
- Is it paid for?“Yes” only when confirmed funding covers the whole cost. If the cost is covered only by counting money that is proposed or applied for, the answer is “Only if pending funding comes through”.
- Is it worth it?“Unknown” until at least one public benefit has a dollar value backed by evidence. Taxes and grants are transfers, not benefits. If measured benefits fall short of cost while other benefits are unmeasured, the answer stays “unknown”, because the missing items could close the gap.
- What these answers are notThey are screening answers read off the published record, not a recommendation to build or not build. No single number decides a project; the “What we don’t know yet” list says what would change them.
In one breath
Gulf Breeze Highway 98 utility undergrounding (CRA-financed). Can it repay what it borrows? On paper; not settled. Is it fully paid for? Yes. Is it worth it to the public? Unknown. The biggest open question: CRA life covers the loan term.
Who pays and who benefits
- Gulf Breeze Community Redevelopment AgencyPays to build it: Gulf Breeze CRA funds (tax increment and bank-loan proceeds; split not published)$7.5M up front
- County and city general funds (increment diverted to the redevelopment agency)Pays it back: Gulf Breeze CRA tax increment (county + city): all of it over the term, of which loan payments are a part$30.8M over debt term
- Gulf Breeze CRA (borrower on the $10.7M bank loan)Carries the risk: Scheduled debt service$12.6M over debt term
- Businesses and residents served from US 98Benefits: Fewer storm outages along the commercial corridor (Grid outage avoidance)Not measured
- FPL ratepayersBenefits: Lower storm restoration cost (Avoided restoration cost)Not measured
- Corridor property owners and businessesBenefits: Corridor appearance and private investment (Economic development)Not measured
Approximate: Census TIGERweb centreline of Gulf Breeze Pkwy (US 98), from the Pensacola Bay Bridge landing east for the published 10,210 feet. The city did not publish project limits.
What we don’t know yet
- CRA life covers the loan termThe CRA was created in December 1989. Under s. 163.3755(1), F.S., a CRA that existed on 1 October 2019 ends on its charter date or on 30 September 2039, whichever is earlier, unless the city or county that created it votes by majority to continue it. The carve-out in s. 163.3755(2)(a) covers only bonds outstanding on 1 October 2019; this loan was approved later. The loan runs to about FY2041. No continuation vote or charter date was found.
- Loan structure is our assumptionActual payments were $632,682 (FY23), $639,096 (FY24) and $645,192 budgeted (FY25), rising slightly; a level payment of the modelled $10,298,762 at 2.10% over 19 years is $662,947. The actual amortization schedule was not published.
- Coverage covenant is our assumptionThe loan covenant was not published.
- Operating cost to the CRA is our assumptionFPL owns and maintains the facilities; any streetlight charges to the city were not published.
- Useful life is our assumptionUsed only for the residual value in the public benefit-cost view.
- Project limits on the map is our assumptionThe city did not publish project limits.
Health and equity screen
People and place
Who lives where the project is, what hazards the site sits in, and which influences on health the project record covers.
Who lives here
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At the site
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Influences on health in the record
The project record describes 2 of 15 influences on health; none is measured.
People and community
- Not in the record: mental health and wellbeing; community resilience and cohesion; safety from crime and violence; displacement and relocation
Design tools: Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design, Affordable Housing Policy Guide
Living conditions and environment
- Not in the record: housing and household costs; air quality; flooding; heat; wildfire; water supply and quality; natural environment and biodiversity
Design tools: Affordable Housing Policy Guide, Flood Hazard Mitigation, Natural Drainage, Light Imprint Stormwater Matrix, Regional Watersheds, Landscape (tree canopy and heat islands), Sustainable Urbanism, Fire Mitigation in the Wildland Urban Interface, Landscape
Economy and services
- Work, income and the local economy · Corridor appearance and private investmentDescribed, not measured
- Power, water and other essential services · Fewer storm outages along the commercial corridor; Lower storm restoration costDescribed, not measured
- Not in the record: access to health and social care; transport and getting around
Design tools: Thoroughfare Standards, Complete Streets
Work through the health impact screening
About this health and equity screen
- What it measures
- Census figures for the tract the project sits in, compared with the county; the hurricane, surge and flood zones its mapped location falls in; and which of 15 wider influences on health the project's own record describes or measures. Where a SmartCode module sets design standards for an influence, it is named as a design tool.
- Why it matters
- Health effects land unevenly. A project can be sound on paper and still leave out the people most exposed, or the effects on heat, flooding and wellbeing that matter most to them. This is the screening stage of a health impact assessment. A full assessment adds a review of the evidence and interviews and workshops with the people affected, the same participatory step a design charrette provides.
- Source
- American Community Survey 2020–2024 tract estimates with 90% margins of error; county rates derived from tract counts. Santa Rosa and Escambia County evacuation zones, Santa Rosa storm-surge zones, FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer. Determinant list after the Public Health Wales climate-change HIA (Green, in Brand, Rao and Jayaram, eds., Climate Change and Public Health, Springer 2025). Site shares are shares of points sampled every 25 m along the mapped location.
Where the numbers come from: 10 from public documents, 5 worked out from them, 5 assumptions
| Input | Value | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real discount rate (Ledger B) | 7.0% | Published | OMB Circular A-94, §8.b(1) base-case real discount rate (1992 text, posted December 2025) The Circular also requires sensitivity at other rates; see the 2.0% low-rate case. |
| Low-rate sensitivity | 2.0% | Published | OMB Circular A-94 Appendix C (revised 2026-03-06), 30-year real rate Appendix C states it is for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase analysis, not benefit-cost analysis of public investment; used here only as a sensitivity. |
| Inflation | 2.06% | Worked out | OMB Circular A-94 Appendix C (2026): 30-year nominal 4.1% and real 2.0% Implied inflation (1.041 / 1.020 − 1), consistent with the federal 2027 Budget assumptions the appendix uses. |
| Financial discount rate and municipal borrowing rate (Ledger A) | 4.83% | Published | Florida DEP, State Revolving Fund Interest Rate Fact Sheet, SFY 2026-27 2nd quarter (Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2026): market rate = Bond Buyer 20-Bond GO Index A market index, not a priced issue for this project; an actual issue would price on its own credit. |
| Hurricane within 50 nm of Pensacola | 1 in 10 years | Published | NOAA NHC, Tropical Cyclone Climatology, estimated return period for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles Read from the map; HURISK (1987) with data through 2010, so it omits 2011–2026 storms such as Sally (2020). |
| Major hurricane within 50 nm of Pensacola | 1 in 28 years | Published | NOAA NHC, Tropical Cyclone Climatology, estimated return period for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles Read from the map; same vintage caveat. |
| Capital cost | $7.5M nominal | Published | City of Gulf Breeze press release, 26 Aug 2026 |
| Length and scope | 10,210 ft; 70 poles; 80 streetlights | Published | City of Gulf Breeze press release, 26 Aug 2026 |
| Spend by year | FY23 $3,386,795; FY24 $1,750,054; remainder split evenly FY25–FY26 | Worked out | City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2023, Schedule of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance (cityofgulfbreeze.us); City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2024, Schedule of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance (cityofgulfbreeze.us) FY25–FY26 split not published; remainder divided evenly. Deflated to FY2022 dollars so the engine reproduces nominal spend. |
| Loan principal and term | $10.7M, 20 years | Published | City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2021 (cityofgulfbreeze.us) |
| Loan interest rate | 2.10% | Worked out | City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2023, Schedule of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance (cityofgulfbreeze.us); City of Gulf Breeze FY2025 Budget, Fund 107 (CRA) (cityofgulfbreeze.us) Interest fell $8,745 after $416,408 of principal was repaid (FY23→FY24) and $9,062 after $431,567 (FY24→FY25): both imply 2.10%. Rate and lender not published. |
| Loan balance modeled | $10,298,762 over the 19 remaining years (FY2023–FY2041) | Worked out | City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2023, Schedule of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance (cityofgulfbreeze.us) FY23 payment $632,682 less $416,408 principal leaves $216,274 interest; at 2.10% that is the balance at the start of FY2023, so about $401,000 was repaid in FY2022. The remaining-term count assumes the 20-year term started in FY2022. |
| Salvage value | None to the CRA | Worked out | Underground lines are owned by FPL Whatever life is left at the end belongs to FPL, so it is not counted as CRA money. It still counts in the public benefit-cost view. |
| Loan structure | Level payment | Assumption | Engine default Actual payments were $632,682 (FY23), $639,096 (FY24) and $645,192 budgeted (FY25), rising slightly; a level payment of the modelled $10,298,762 at 2.10% over 19 years is $662,947. The actual amortization schedule was not published. |
| Tax increment that repays the loan | $1,542,370 in FY2023 | Published | City of Gulf Breeze CRA Annual Report 2023, Schedule of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance (cityofgulfbreeze.us) The amount is published. Whether it is formally pledged to the loan, and what else the CRA must pay from it first, are not. |
| Tax-increment growth | 4.0% a year | Published | City of Gulf Breeze FY2025 Budget, Fund 107 (CRA) (cityofgulfbreeze.us) Actual growth was 11.3% (FY24) and budgeted 13.6% (FY25); the target is used as a conservative forecast. |
| Coverage covenant | 1.25× | Assumption | Common bank-loan covenant The loan covenant was not published. |
| Operating cost to the CRA | $0 | Assumption | Not published FPL owns and maintains the facilities; any streetlight charges to the city were not published. |
| Useful life | 40 years | Assumption | Not published Used only for the residual value in the public benefit-cost view. |
| Project limits on the map | 10,210 ft east of the bridge landing | Assumption | Census TIGERweb Gulf Breeze Pkwy centreline The city did not publish project limits. |
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