What if?
Change two assumptions at once and see where the answer flips from yes to no.
Inputs to vary
Starts on the two inputs that move this measure most (see the swing list); pick any others.
Current values
- Pledged / contract stream (annual)$1.5M
- Debt interest rate (all tranches)2.1%
- Debt rate2.1%
- Economic discount7.0% real
Outcome measure
Pick the two inputs to vary. Every cell is a full recalculation of the project with those two inputs changed.
Result across the grid
Over 20 years: loan coverage in the tightest year
Rows: Debt interest rate (all tranches) · Columns: Pledged / contract stream (annual) · 48 recalculations · threshold 1.25×
Red fails the test (below 1.25×), blue passes; the darker, the further from it. White is at the threshold. The dark line runs between cells that pass and cells that fail: the break-even.
Borderline = passes the threshold by less than 10% (ratios) or less than 5% of capital cost (dollars). Clicking a cell applies its two values to the project.
Scenarios to compare
Where it breaks even
Break-even found within range
High-impact assumptions (computed swing)
- Pledged / contract stream (annual)High
- Debt interest rate (all tranches)Medium
- Construction cost (fixed part)Low
- Financial discount rate (nominal)Low
- Economic discount rate (real)Low
Swing = change in the outcome as each input moves across its grid range, one at a time with the others held fixed. A local screen: it does not capture inputs that matter only in combination.
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